The US pivot on regulating AI diffusion

Donald Trump’s announcement of a one-year waiver on the export of Nvidia’s H200 chips to China marks a sharp turn away from Joe Biden’s ‘small yard, high fence’ approach to AI controls. By treating advanced chips as bargaining instruments in a wider contest for market share and influence, Washington is testing how far it can diffuse AI hardware without losing strategic leverage.

In December 2025, President Trump made a surprising move: granting Chinese firms one-year access to Nvidia's advanced H200 chips. This marks a dramatic departure from the Biden administration's cautious approach to AI export controls—and signals a fundamental shift in how Washington views the technology race with Beijing.

Rather than maintaining strict barriers to protect America's technological edge, the Trump administration is betting on a different strategy: flood global markets with US technology to lock in long-term dependence, even if it means accepting near-term security risks. But with China aggressively pursuing semiconductor independence through firms like Huawei, will this gamble pay off?

The answer could reshape the future of AI geopolitics.